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Why Is There More Than One Unemployment Rate Figure? “National Estimates” and “Modeled ILO Estimates” to Know When Comparing Countries

Tracking world statistics on Work and Wages

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Unemployment Rates Are Measured in Different Ways

When comparing unemployment rates internationally, the same term—“unemployment rate”—may refer to statistics produced using different methods. World Bank materials include unemployment rates based on national estimates for each country, as well as unemployment rates modeled according to International Labour Organization (ILO) standards.

National estimates are figures published by each country based on its own statistical systems and survey methods. Modeled estimates, on the other hand, are adjusted to make statistical information that differs from country to country easier to compare internationally. Both are statistics that seek to describe the same reality, but their figures do not necessarily match because their underlying assumptions differ.

For this reason, it is difficult to judge a country’s employment environment simply by looking at unemployment-rate rankings. What matters is confirming which estimation method the figure uses and comparing statistics of the same type.

Points to Check When Making Comparisons

World Bank indicators cover not only the overall unemployment rate but also unemployment rates by age group, educational attainment, and gender. Because the labor force covered differs, indicators with similar names do not necessarily describe the same population.

For example, the overall unemployment rate covers the entire labor force, while the youth unemployment rate covers the labor force aged 15 to 24. Among young people, the proportion of those attending school and the proportion of those seeking work may differ from the overall population. Therefore, the youth unemployment rate should not be treated simply as a breakdown of the overall unemployment rate; it needs to be read as a separate indicator.

Indicators by educational attainment show unemployment rates for the categories of basic, intermediate, and advanced education. However, these do not represent the proportion of unemployed people among everyone who has received an education. Instead, they show the unemployment situation within the labor force belonging to each educational category. When comparing statistics with different denominators side by side, it is essential to verify the definitions of the indicators.

Main Related Indicators Listed by the World Bank

Population coveredType of estimateWhat it shows
Entire labor forceNational estimateThe overall unemployment situation based on each country’s statistical methods
Entire labor forceModeled ILO estimateThe overall unemployment situation adjusted with international comparisons in mind
Labor force aged 15 to 24National estimate / modeled ILO estimateThe unemployment situation among young people
Labor force by basic, intermediate, and advanced educationIndicator by educational attainmentThe unemployment situation for each educational category
Male labor forceNational estimate for malesThe unemployment situation within the male labor force

Before Looking at the Figures, Confirm “What Is Being Compared”

The unemployment rate is important information when considering employment conditions. However, the unemployment rate alone does not reveal the types of jobs people hold, the hours they work, their wages, or the situation of people who wish to find work but are not engaged in job-search activities.

In addition, national estimates and modeled estimates are produced through different statistical processes. Therefore, when two figures are shown for the same country, it is more important to use them according to their purpose than to decide which one is correct. The appropriate indicator differs depending on whether you want to understand conditions based on domestic institutions and surveys or compare multiple countries using the same standard.

When reading unemployment rates, you need to check not only the figures themselves but also the labor force covered, age group, gender, educational attainment, and estimation method. Carefully distinguishing between statistical names is the starting point for avoiding misunderstandings when comparing work and wages internationally.

Sources

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.NE.ZS

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.1524.NE.ZS

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.1524.ZS

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.BASC.ZS

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.INTM.ZS

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.ADVN.ZS

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.NE.ZS